Welcome back fantasy sports lovers! Last week 6 of the optimizers managed to place in a contest we track (one better than the previous week) — but only in the double up. Did any of the projections manage to place in the always elusive Millionaire Maker? Scroll down to find out and see all this week’s other statistics and results.
A quick note: These comparisons are a lot of fun to put together but no one is paying me to do it. Once you’re done analyzing the results perhaps you want to see what 27+ thousand people are so excited about and finally purchase that an Amazon Echo? Maybe not, but whatever your desires may be: if you see an orange bar (like the one below) don’t be scared, it’s just a link to everyones favorite jungle-name themed Internet retailer.
A note about Optimizers
Optimizers are super cool but should be used with caution and self-discipline!
Look, it would be great if you could just load up an optimizer/projector from the list here, press a button and get a winning lineup – but it doesn’t (usually) work that way. The best tools not only feature sophisticated algorithms but also options that you can tweak to get a lineup that is successful and unique. I wish I had the capacity to compare each optimizer multiple times using different options but it’s simply not possible to test every combination. This is why all the lineups you see generated below have been made by using either default options or a set of options I feel matches up fairly with the other optimizers. It may not generate a winning lineup but it keeps the comparison a little bit more fair.
A note about this week’s projections: I generated the lineups for this weeks comparison at noon EST.
Generated lineups by source/site
NFL Lineup Optimizer by Daily Fantasy Cafe
This site has a ton of options like game type, position match-ups, player exposure, various calculation models and more. Here are the settings I used: GPP/off/off/off/off/on/on/off and all 3 projection models were enabled. This is the highest projected scoring lineup.
Pos. | Player | Proj. Pts |
---|---|---|
QB | Cam Newton | 23.77 |
QB | Cam Newton | 23.77 |
RB | Justin Forsett | 21.10 |
RB | Chris Johnson | 16.07 |
WR | Keenan Allen | 19.89 |
WR | Willie Snead | 13.98 |
WR | Brandin Cooks | 15.81 |
TE | Tyler Eifert | 15.12 |
FLEX | Todd Gurley | 17.07 |
DST | Rams | 14.02 |
Total | 156.83 |
Lineup Optimizer by daily fantasy nerd
This site let’s you tweak your optimization with sliders for salary range, projected fantasy points, projected value, total salary and randomization. It also has options for stacking QB with WR, allowed positions for FLEX and if you allow offense vs defense.
Premium features include the ability to upload your own projections and/or to apply customized “weight” to certain statistics before generating projections such as “Last 5 Avg”, “Season Avg”, “Season Floor”, “Season Ceiling” and “dfn Projected points.” My lineup uses the default settings with no custom projections.
Pos. | Player | Proj. Pts |
---|---|---|
QB | Philip Rivers | 23.20 |
RB | Justin Forsett | 22.40 |
RB | Devonta Freeman | 25.40 |
WR | Michael Crabtree | 15.70 |
WR | Steve Johnson | 11.40 |
WR | Antonio Brown | 22.70 |
TE | Delanie Walker | 13.30 |
FLEX | Todd Gurley | 20.60 |
DST | Rams | 10.40 |
Total | 165.10 |
Daily Fantasy Lineup Generator by Fanspeak
This site let’s you tweak your optimization by selecting if you are optimizing for a cash contest or tournament (more risk presumably) and if you want to prioritize a position (to include more expensive players in that role?). My lineup uses the first lineup generated using the tournament setting with a balanced prioritization.
Pos. | Player | Proj. Pts |
---|---|---|
QB | Philip Rivers | N/A |
RB | Dion Lewis | N/A |
RB | Todd Gurley | N/A |
WR | Dorial Green-Beckham | N/A |
WR | Julian Edelman | N/A |
WR | Demaryius Thomas | N/A |
TE | Delanie Walker | N/A |
FLEX | Ryan Mathews | N/A |
DST | Jets | N/A |
Lineup Cruncher by FantasyCruncher
Fantasy Cruncher is a premium tool for researching and generating lineups for all DFS. It features all the options you could ask for in a lineup optimizer including flex position limitation, # of offense vs defense players, exposure, qb/wr/te stacking, players per team and unique features like consistency range, value range and projected points range. Lot’s of cool stuff and to top it all off you can use their Lineup Rewind tool to go back to previous weeks and generate lineups based on all of these settings. This lineup was generated using default settings.
Pos. | Player | Proj. Pts |
---|---|---|
QB | Tom Brady | 26.12 |
RB | Todd Gurley | 22.54 |
RB | Jonathan Stewart | 15.95 |
WR | Antonio Brown | 25.17 |
WR | AJ Green | 23.56 |
WR | Steve Johnson | 13.72 |
TE | Jacob Tamme | 11.79 |
FLEX | Stefon Diggs | 21.04 |
DST | Broncos | 10.85 |
Total | 170.74 |
Lineup Optimizer by FantasyPros
This site allows you to generate a lineup based on expert consensus rankings or a custom lineup with your favorite players locked into their positions. After generating a lineup you can exclude, swap and lock in players as many times as you want while generating new lineups. My lineup uses the default consensus setting.
Pos. | Player | Proj. Pts |
---|---|---|
QB | Tom Brady | 27.72 |
RB | Devonta Freeman | 23.23 |
RB | Darren McFadden | 13.83 |
WR | Julio Jones | 25.82 |
WR | Antonio Brown | 25.26 |
WR | Brandon LaFell | 12.11 |
TE | Heath Miller | 11.02 |
FLEX | Steve Johnson | 13.32 |
DST | Eagles | 13.71 |
Total | 166.02 |
Fantasy Football Lineup Generator from USA TODAY powered by numberFire
I used to get these results from the numberFire blog but now I use their free tool which can be found on the USATODAY website. It has a few features like game selection and player exclusion.
Pos. | Player | Proj. Pts |
---|---|---|
QB | Tom Brady | 28.99 |
RB | Devonta Freeman | 23.40 |
RB | Antonio Andrews | 12.90 |
WR | Antonio Brown | 23.18 |
WR | Sammy Watkins | 14.79 |
WR | Steve Johnson | 15.15 |
TE | Benjamin Watson | 12.98 |
FLEX | Justin Hunter | 9.93 |
DST | Eagles | 12.41 |
Total | 153.73 |
LineStar DK App by Fantasy Sports Co
Download Download
This app is available for DraftKings and FantasyDuel on both iOS and Android. It allows you to set players you “love/hate” before generating lineups as well as pick which games to include. One of the coolest features of this app is that the data it uses to generate lineups is constantly being updated until kickoff. You can even look at a list of “updates” to see which players are being upgraded and downgraded.
Pos. | Player | Proj. Pts |
---|---|---|
QB | Philip Rivers | 25.63 |
RB | Doug Martin | 17.70 |
RB | Darren McFadden | 18.06 |
WR | Stefon Diggs | 16.00 |
WR | Julio Jones | 29.24 |
WR | Steve Johnson | 15.10 |
TE | Heath Miller | 15.70 |
FLEX | Devonta Freeman | 26.60 |
DST | Broncos | 10.43 |
Total | 174.46 |
Lineup Optimizer by Lineup Lab using 4FOR4 projection source
Lineup Lab is a premium tool that lets you generate lineups from 2 trusted data sources (or you can use your own data). The feature-set isn’t huge but it has filters for game, salary, points and pts/$ and the ability to diversify results, stack players and limit offense vs defense. This site provides a great way to get projections based on 2 of the most popular sources in one place.
Pos. | Player | Proj. Pts |
---|---|---|
QB | Tom Brady | 24.91 |
RB | Devonta Freeman | 25.75 |
RB | Todd Gurley | 21.75 |
WR | Antonio Gates | 17.74 |
WR | Darren McFadden | 17.84 |
WR | Alshon Jeffery | 21.12 |
TE | Martavis Bryant | 17.31 |
FLEX | Steve Johnson | 15.16 |
DST | Saints | 8.48 |
Total | 170.06 |
Lineup Optimizer by Lineup Lab using Pro Football Focus projection source
Lineup Lab is a premium tool that lets you generate lineups from 2 trusted data sources (or you can use your own data). The feature-set isn’t huge but it has filters for game, salary, points and pts/$ and the ability to diversify results, stack players and limit offense vs defense. This site provides a great way to get projections based on 2 of the most popular sources in one place.
Pos. | Player | Proj. Pts |
---|---|---|
QB | Philip Rivers | 21.32 |
RB | Devonta Freeman | 28.72 |
RB | Darren Mcfadden | 16.66 |
WR | Jeremy Langford | 15.00 |
WR | Jeremy Langford | 15.00 |
WR | Antonio Brown | 26.51 |
TE | Demaryius Thomas | 20.41 |
FLEX | Steve Johnson | 13.70 |
DST | Denver Broncos | 8.88 |
Total | 166.20 |
Optimal NFL Lineup by Roster Nerds
Roster Nerds has one option: block a player. Oh wait, you also get 6 lineups to choose from and can sort-of pick which games to include using the menu at the top. It’s a mystery how it all works – but maybe that’s the point? It’s magic.
Pos. | Player | Proj. Pts |
---|---|---|
QB | Philip Rivers | 24.81 |
RB | Darren McFadden | 15.81 |
RB | Jonathan Stewart | 15.17 |
WR | Antonio Brown | 26.17 |
WR | Brandon LaFell | 11.64 |
WR | Julian Edelman | 20.97 |
TE | Antonio Gates | 16.42 |
FLEX | AJ Green | 20.53 |
DST | Eagles | 10.41 |
Total | 161.93 |
NFL Projected Optimal Lineup by RotoGrinders
This tool has no options for the optimizer itself. There is another tool on the site to build lineups but it generates seemingly random lineups.
Pos. | Player | Proj. Pts |
---|---|---|
QB | Philip Rivers | 19.73 |
RB | Devonta Freeman | 25.34 |
RB | DeAngelo Williams | 15.75 |
WR | Jarvis Landry | 16.58 |
WR | Stefon Diggs | 14.86 |
WR | Steve Johnson | 14.62 |
TE | Antonio Gates | 18.06 |
FLEX | Alshon Jeffery | 17.13 |
DST | Patriots | 12.60 |
Total | 154.67 |
Daily Lineup Optimizer by RotoViz
This site let’s you tweak your optimization with a salary cap slider, maximum RB/WE/TE selector, over/under filter, team total filter, and player/team pre-selection and blacklisting. My lineup uses the default settings.
Pos. | Player | Proj. Pts |
---|---|---|
QB | Kirk Cousins | 19.32 |
RB | Darren Mcfadden | 15.66 |
RB | Devonta Freeman | 23.39 |
WR | Julio Jones | 21.67 |
WR | Steve Johnson | 13.67 |
WR | Michael Crabtree | 15.69 |
TE | Jordan Reed | 15.38 |
FLEX | Todd Gurley | 18.53 |
DST | Broncos | 11.46 |
Total | 154.77 |
NFL Weekly Lineup Optimizer by Rotowire
This site doesn’t have any options aside from player exclusion for premium members.
Pos. | Player | Proj. Pts |
---|---|---|
QB | Drew Brees | 31.10 |
RB | Dion Lewis | 23.20 |
RB | Lamar Miller | 20.20 |
WR | Antonio Brown | 31.40 |
WR | Mike Evans | 27.90 |
WR | Alshon Jeffery | 27.80 |
TE | Heath Miller | 17.50 |
FLEX | Malcom Floyd | 20.80 |
DST | Broncos | 10.00 |
Total | 209.90 |
Optimus X Pro by Swish Analytics
This site let’s you choose a risk level from 1 to 5. It also lets you pick which games and players to exclude but you can only generate one lineup per day for free. My lineup uses a level 3 risk setting.
Pos. | Player | Proj. Pts |
---|---|---|
QB | Peyton Manning | 19.45 |
RB | Devonta Freeman | 20.53 |
RB | DeMarco Murray | 20.06 |
WR | Antonio Brown | 22.63 |
WR | Odell Beckham Jr. | 20.22 |
WR | Brandon LaFell | 12.24 |
TE | Heath Miller | 11.26 |
FLEX | Antonio Andrews | 14.10 |
DST | Eagles | 9.42 |
Total | 149.91 |
Statistical Results
Here’s a breakdown of what each chart compares:
Prediction Accuracy actual pts vs projected
Rank | Source | Score |
---|---|---|
1 | Swish Analytics | 120.31% |
2 | numberFire | 119.47% |
3 | RotoGrinders | 110.85% |
4 | Lineup Lab (PFF) | 110.72% |
5 | FantasyPros | 108.54% |
6 | Daily Fantasy Cafe | 106.83% |
7 | RotoViz | 103.27% |
8 | daily fantasy nerd | 101.11% |
9 | Roster Nerds | 97.12% |
10 | Rotowire | 85.75% |
11 | FantasyCruncher | 83.10% |
12 | Lineup Lab (4F4) | 80.17% |
13 | LineStar DK | 66.18% |
– | FanSpeak | N/A |
Click columns headers to sort. Higher score = better accuracy.
Value Efficiency most pts per $
Rank | Source | Avg $/fpt) |
---|---|---|
1 | numberFire | $280.63 |
2 | Swish Analytics | $294.08 |
3 | FantasyPros | $295.69 |
4 | Lineup Lab (PFF) | $330.66 |
5 | RotoViz | $332.10 |
6 | Daily Fantasy Cafe | $345.80 |
7 | daily fantasy nerd | $353.50 |
8 | RotoGrinders | $355.92 |
9 | Roster Nerds | $393.93 |
10 | FanSpeak | $406.94 |
11 | FantasyCruncher | $441.52 |
12 | LineStar DK | $482.28 |
13 | Lineup Lab (4F4) | $546.37 |
14 | Rotowire | $9,999.99 |
$9,999.99 denotes one or more players scored 0 fpts so average was not possible to determine.
Value Efficiency VS Topposition pp$ vs top 8 players (avg)
Rank | Source | Score |
---|---|---|
1 | numberFire | 74.73% |
2 | Lineup Lab (PFF) | 73.62% |
3 | FantasyPros | 70.75% |
4 | Swish Analytics | 70.10% |
5 | daily fantasy nerd | 66.56% |
6 | RotoGrinders | 64.15% |
7 | RotoViz | 62.83% |
8 | Roster Nerds | 60.96% |
9 | FanSpeak | 60.67% |
10 | Daily Fantasy Cafe | 58.60% |
11 | FantasyCruncher | 54.80% |
12 | Lineup Lab (4F4) | 53.74% |
13 | LineStar DK | 46.95% |
14 | Rotowire | 0.00% |
0% denotes one or more players scored 0 fpts so value was not possible to determine.
Performance VS Topposition pts vs top 8 players (avg)
Rank | Source | Score |
---|---|---|
1 | Rotowire | 70.66% |
2 | Swish Analytics | 70.45% |
3 | numberFire | 69.06% |
4 | Lineup Lab (PFF) | 68.51% |
5 | FantasyPros | 68.46% |
6 | RotoGrinders | 66.92% |
7 | daily fantasy nerd | 65.71% |
8 | Daily Fantasy Cafe | 62.61% |
9 | RotoViz | 61.16% |
10 | Roster Nerds | 59.59% |
11 | FanSpeak | 58.17% |
12 | FantasyCruncher | 54.97% |
13 | Lineup Lab (4F4) | 54.92% |
14 | LineStar DK | 45.63% |
Overall Performancetotal pts earned
Rank | Source | Total FPts |
---|---|---|
1 | Rotowire | 193.68 |
2 | Swish Analytics | 187.84 |
3 | Lineup Lab (PFF) | 184.10 |
4 | numberFire | 183.76 |
5 | FantasyPros | 183.46 |
6 | daily fantasy nerd | 171.80 |
7 | RotoGrinders | 169.66 |
8 | Daily Fantasy Cafe | 162.68 |
9 | RotoViz | 160.78 |
10 | Roster Nerds | 156.70 |
11 | FantasyCruncher | 145.56 |
12 | Lineup Lab (4F4) | 144.76 |
13 | FanSpeak | 139.80 |
14 | LineStar DK | 119.50 |
Real-world Results
Would any of these lineups have made money in 5 popular DraftKings NFL contests this week? Let’s find out!
DraftKings Contest Performance (Week 9)
Key | |
---|---|
$6M = $6M MILLIONAIRE MAKER | $25 DU = MASSIVE $25 DOUBLE UP |
$450K = $450K SLANT | $650K = $650K BLITZ |
$1.25M = $1.25M PLAY-ACTION | $## = entry fee |
Conclusion
Last week I anticipated that we would have more optimizers placing in the money but instead we had less of them placing but the ones that did doing incredibly well – with one placing in all 5 tracked contests! The rest did fairly well too. Perhaps this is a testament to the statistics used becoming more predictable or maybe it was just a week of less surprises. The score needed to place in all the contests was actually fairly high and yet 5 optimizer projections managed to keep up.
What will next week hold? Will a default optimizer projection win first place in one of these contests? Probably not, but you never know. Come back next week to find out!
Optimizer Leaderboardtotal contests placed in
Rank | Source | Places |
---|---|---|
1 | Rotowire | 11 |
2 | FantasyPros | 10 |
2 | Lineup Lab (PFF) | 10 |
2 | daily fantasy nerd | 7 |
2 | LineStar DK | 6 |
3 | RotoViz | 6 |
3 | numberFire | 5 |
3 | Swish Analytics | 5 |
3 | FantasyCruncher | 2 |
3 | Lineup Lab (4F4) | 2 |
4 | RotoGrinders | 2 |
4 | Daily Fantasy Cafe | 1 |
4 | FanSpeak | 1 |
4 | Roster Nerds | 1 |
Roster Nerds wasn’t tracked for first two weeks.
Hopefully some of this information has been entertaining or useful! As always if you see any discrepancies or have any comments / suggestions feel free to leave them below or contact me on Twitter / Reddit. I will continue tracking the optimizers every week to hopefully determine which algorithm is superior to the rest. Iif you decide that you want to take the plunge and try your hand at one of these contests for NFL Week 10 please click my DraftKings link below. Thanks.
One last thing! The NBA optimzer weekly comparison is coming… I promise.
Source image can be found here.
Hey are you going to continue this? Loved what you were doing.